In the National League, things are less surprising. The New York Mets defeated the Milwaukee Brewers in a thrilling three-game wild-card game, and there was truly no way that the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres, the league’s three dominant teams, could have lost. It was thrilling to watch the wild-card round, but for both the winning teams and the teams holding out to find out who their LDS opponent was, it’s time to move on.
Considering the perspectives of the teams that watched the first round with us, let’s take a quick look at the pairings. What did they notice that made them think twice?
What caught their attention that could make them lick their chops? Let’s evaluate. Here’s a spoiler alert: Teams are ranked from most to least concerned. There should be concern for each of the four bye teams.
Dodgers of Los Angeles
The Dodgers must have had their fingers crossed for an Atlanta upset, as strong as the Braves were in the face of major injury after major injury. Naturally, they would never publicly admit it, but that’s just the way people are. That’s because the Padres appear to be a complete wrecking ball, whereas the Dodgers have the Shohei Show, Mookie Betts, and another dominant regular season behind them.
These have been the two best teams in baseball since the All-Star break, based on winning percentage. The Padres (43-20) are ahead of the Dodgers (42-23) in the standings, but San Diego recorded a 24-12 record away from home during that time. It won’t matter to the Padres where they play—in Dodger Stadium or any other venue, really. The Padres team that not only dominated Atlanta but also played in a manner that perfectly mirrored San Diego’s aspirations for October was the team that the Dodgers saw in the wild-card round.
In a round in which longballs and runs in general were hard to come by, the Padres went deep three times and had the highest average exit velocity of the eight squads (90.6 mph, per TruMedia). They had the lowest strikeout percentage in the wild-card round because they were aggressive and got the bat on the ball. In their pitching matchup with Atlanta, they recorded 23 strikeouts compared to just one walk. The Dodgers have the two best players in this series in Shohei Ohtani and Betts. Additionally, the Dodgers’ lineup has greater power from top to bottom. But when you pit these clubs against one another, it’s more difficult than you might imagine to formulate a convincing case for why, precisely, you would choose the Dodgers to prevail.
In spite of the fact that regular-season series have no predictive value, the Padres have won eight of the last thirteen meetings.
All of that does not preclude the Dodgers from winning. All it signifies is that they are essentially facing their greatest opponent to begin this series on an even playing field—one that is desperate to win a World Series that they know they can win.
Dodgers: This is a legitimately high level of concern.
The Phillies of Philadelphia
The Phillies are participating in their third consecutive postseason, having advanced to at least the NLCS in their previous two outings. After going through the October ordeal together, the team’s core has stayed largely intact, and this has led to many victories in crucial games. The Phillies of 2024 appeared to be the best team in the majors for a significant portion of this season, challenging previous teams. With 95 victories, the Phillies surpassed both the 2022 World Series winning team and the team from the previous season by five games. After 13 years, Philadelphia finally won a division championship.
The Phillies have a lot of confidence as the NLDS draws near because of all of these factors. Nevertheless, the Phillies’ season ended less than optimally. They also have to play the Mets, who have been in full playoff mode for over a week.
The Phillies ended the season with a winning percentage that was greater than their losses, but they did so by using a five-run-per-game hammer that is unlikely to be used against the New York pitching staff. They were giving up runs at a rate of 4.9 per game even though they were scoring all these runs in September. MLB’s lowest rotation ERA of 5.68 was recorded.
There were more than just fill-ins to blame for that number; Philadelphia was searching far and wide for starting pitching options. Only Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez, in all honesty, were playing at the peak of their abilities. Even Aaron Nola struggled at times, particularly when it came to keeping the ball in the park.
The Phillies seem to have spent weeks in limbo, waiting for this series to begin and for whomever the opponent would be. The Mets enter the game having just defeated the Milwaukee club, which had a higher run differential during the regular season than the Phillies, in a hard-fought three-game series. That victory followed their exciting victory over Atlanta the day after the season ended, which gave them the first-round bye into the playoffs.
There will be fierce competition in this upcoming rivalry series. We’ll see when Philly gets around to tuning into the frequency that the Mets have already mastered.
Concern level of the Phillies: Bring it on.
Cleveland Guards
Cleveland and Detroit played the final game of their 13-game series on July 30, despite being division rivals. On that day, the trade deadline, the Guardians were all add mode, starting rookie Lane Thomas in the starting lineup. At that time, it was evident why the Tigers were losing ground: With a 5-0 victory, Cleveland jumped ahead of Detroit by 15 games in the division rankings.
You’d have to believe that Cleveland is a little confused to see the Tigers again, given that the Guardians haven’t seen them since their rocket went boom. What have these guys done with the former Tigers, and who are they exactly? When considering the entire season, the Guardians rank as baseball’s youngest team based on average age. The Tigers are even younger now that the deadline has passed. With a deep, airlock-style bullpen that allowed them to thrive all season, the Guardians have bullpenned their way through many games, from start to finish, while the Tigers have constructed a very similar setup. You could proceed. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians is the best position player in the series, but there isn’t a player in the Cleveland rotation who is anywhere near as good as Tigers ace Tarik Skubal at the moment.
The Guardians will have to figure out a new Tigers riddle, one that will prove trickier to solve than the last time Cleveland faced Detroit.
Concern level of Guardians: Hey, where are the Astros?
Yankees in New York
This season has an obvious David vs. Goliath storyline, but to interpret it that way would be to overstate the Yankees’ advantages and minimize the Royals’ advantages.
Although the Yankees should be strong favorites, this is not an odd matchup on paper. New York not only had the best record in the AL, but they also had the best run differential (plus-147). The Royals and Astros were tied for second place, though (plus-91). You could argue that this is a matchup between the two best teams in the AL, if you believe in such portents. The Yankees can find comfort in their enormous advantage in raw power thanks to the Aaron Judge-Juan Soto combination. Not that Soto cares about being on the same side as the Royals, but they can throw a parade of lefties at him. They have Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber, a nicely contrasted right-handed reliever duo, to use against Judge in high-leverage situations. But this is assuming that matchup specialization is possible given the timing of the three-batter requirement. There aren’t any decent solutions for the Soto-Judge stack when they roll. But because of Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are one of the few teams with a top-of-the-roster talent to compete with the Yankees if they can neutralize Soto, Judge, or both. Witt, the eagerly anticipated replacement for George Brett as the team’s icon, is likely familiar with the background of this long-dormant but formerly intense rivalry. The Yankees may have a difficult week ahead of them if Witt is Brett’s replacement in the same manner that Brett feasted on them.
The Yankees ought to be optimistic going into this game. They are a strong favorite and have been the best team in the AL. But they shouldn’t be too confident because this Royals team has better starting pitching, more speed, better team defense and, arguably, a superior right-now bullpen. Put another way, there is a lot riding on New York’s ability to demonstrate that significant advantage in firepower because this Royals team can beat them.
Yankees’ Concern level: Mediocre, with room for pride.